Module: Prophet
- Defined in:
- lib/prophet.rb,
lib/prophet/plot.rb,
lib/prophet/version.rb,
lib/prophet/holidays.rb,
lib/prophet/forecaster.rb,
lib/prophet/stan_backend.rb
Defined Under Namespace
Modules: Holidays, Plot
Classes: Error, Forecaster, StanBackend
Constant Summary
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- VERSION =
"0.3.1"
Class Method Summary
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Class Method Details
.anomalies(series) ⇒ Object
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# File 'lib/prophet.rb', line 87
def self.anomalies(series)
df = Rover::DataFrame.new(series.map { |k, v| {"ds" => k, "y" => v} })
m = Prophet.new(interval_width: 0.99)
m.logger.level = ::Logger::FATAL m.fit(df)
forecast = m.predict(df)
df["ds"][(df["y"] < forecast["yhat_lower"]) | (df["y"] > forecast["yhat_upper"])].to_a
end
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.forecast(series, count: 10) ⇒ Object
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# File 'lib/prophet.rb', line 24
def self.forecast(series, count: 10)
raise ArgumentError, "Series must have at least 10 data points" if series.size < 10
keys = series.keys
dates = keys.all? { |k| k.is_a?(Date) }
time_zone = keys.first.time_zone if keys.first.respond_to?(:time_zone)
utc = keys.first.utc? if keys.first.respond_to?(:utc?)
times = keys.map(&:to_time)
day = times.all? { |t| t.hour == 0 && t.min == 0 && t.sec == 0 && t.nsec == 0 }
week = day && times.map { |k| k.wday }.uniq.size == 1
month = day && times.all? { |k| k.day == 1 }
quarter = month && times.all? { |k| k.month % 3 == 1 }
year = quarter && times.all? { |k| k.month == 1 }
freq =
if year
"YS"
elsif quarter
"QS"
elsif month
"MS"
elsif week
"W"
elsif day
"D"
else
diff = Rover::Vector.new(times).sort.diff.to_numo[1..-1]
min_diff = diff.min.to_i
raise "Unknown frequency" unless (diff % min_diff).eq(0).all?
"#{min_diff}S"
end
df = Rover::DataFrame.new({"ds" => series.keys, "y" => series.values})
m = Prophet.new
m.logger.level = ::Logger::FATAL m.fit(df)
future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods: count, include_history: false, freq: freq)
forecast = m.predict(future)
result = forecast[["ds", "yhat"]].to_a
if dates
result.each { |v| v["ds"] = v["ds"].to_date }
elsif time_zone
result.each { |v| v["ds"] = v["ds"].in_time_zone(time_zone) }
elsif utc
result.each { |v| v["ds"] = v["ds"].utc }
else
result.each { |v| v["ds"] = v["ds"].localtime }
end
result.map { |v| [v["ds"], v["yhat"]] }.to_h
end
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.new(**kwargs) ⇒ Object
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# File 'lib/prophet.rb', line 20
def self.new(**kwargs)
Forecaster.new(**kwargs)
end
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